Summary:

• The potential emergence of a weak La Niña and the negative phase of IOD across East Africa is likely to cause below normal rainfall in Somalia.

Highlights:

• Drier than normal conditions are likely across most parts of Somalia during Oct–Dec 2025 (Deyr season). The probability is around 45% in N part and 55% in S Somalia.

Summary:

• Drier than normal conditions are likely across most parts of Somalia during Oct–Dec 2025 (Deyr season). The probability is around 45% in N part and 55% in S Somalia.
• The likelihood of below normal rainfall across E East Africa, including Somalia, is enhanced by the potential emergence of a weak La Niña and the negative phase of IOD.
• Warmer than normal conditions are forecast in Somalia for the same period.
• The anticipated lower than average rainfall and above normal temperatures pose significant risks to all sectors in Somalia. The expected extended dry periods in some regions could exacerbate drought conditions, negatively impacting livelihoods and increasing humanitarian needs (Somalia NCOF).
• The combined impacts of consecutive droughts and flood events are expected to continue posing multi-sectoral risks across Somalia.