Highlights:

• Below-normal rainfall is likely across most of Somalia, particularly in southern and central regions.
• Southern and central Somalia and coastal Somaliland have a higher probability (~55%) of drier-than-normal conditions, indicating delayed onset and reduced rainfall.
• Somaliland and central Puntland show moderate chances (~45%) of below-normal rainfall, suggesting continued rainfall deficits.
• Isolated parts of Puntland (including Nugaal and Sool–Sanaag) have a moderate probability (~45%) of wetter-than-normal conditions, though signals are localized.
• Neighbouring areas in the northeast show equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall, reflecting higher uncertainty.
• Despite the dry outlook, localized heavy rainfall events remain possible, posing a risk of flash floods in flood-prone areas.

Highlights:

• Above-average temperatures are likely across most of Somalia during the Deyr 2025 season.
• High likelihood (around 65%) of warmer-than-normal conditions is expected over Jubaland, Southwest States, Mudug, Nugaal, inland Galgaduud and Bari, Awdal, and much of Woqooyi Galbeed.
• Very high chances (up to 75%) of above-average temperatures are projected for Sool Region, parts of Togdheer (including Buhoodle and Burco), and Ceel Afweyne district in Sanaag.
• Moderate probabilities (around 55%) of warmer-than-normal conditions are expected in Hirshabelle, parts of Banadir, Middle Shabelle coastal areas, Galgaduud coastal zones, and coastal districts of Bari and Sanaag.
• Elevated temperatures are likely to increase heat stress, water demand, and evapotranspiration, worsening drought conditions and impacting health, agriculture, and livestock.
• The widespread warm signal highlights the need for heat-risk preparedness and water-resource management across the country.

Key Highlights:

• Poor and late Deyr rains: Most of Somalia is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall, with a delayed onset, especially in the southern regions.
• Hotter than usual conditions: Above-average temperatures are expected, which will worsen drought conditions, increase water stress, and elevate health risks.
• Persistent northern drought: Drought conditions in Somaliland and Puntland are expected to persist and further deteriorate.
• Flood risks remain: Despite the overall dry outlook, localized flash floods and river overflows may still occur in flood-prone areas.
• Livelihoods at risk: Short and erratic rains are likely to limit agricultural recovery and increase stress on livestock and livelihoods.