Somalia Seasonal Outlook - Deyr Season (Oct, Nov and Dec 2025)

Highlights:

Below-normal rainfall is likely across most of Somalia, particularly in southern and central regions.
Southern and central Somalia and coastal Somaliland have a higher probability (~55%) of drier-than-normal conditions, indicating delayed onset and reduced rainfall.
Somaliland and central Puntland show moderate chances (~45%) of below-normal rainfall, suggesting continued rainfall deficits.
Isolated parts of Puntland (including Nugaal and Sool–Sanaag) have a moderate probability (~45%) of wetter-than-normal conditions, though signals are localized.
Neighbouring areas in the northeast show equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall, reflecting higher uncertainty.
Despite the dry outlook, localized heavy rainfall events remain possible, posing a risk of flash floods in flood-prone areas.

Highlights:

Above-average temperatures are likely across most of Somalia during the Deyr 2025 season.
High likelihood (around 65%) of warmer-than-normal conditions is expected over Jubaland, Southwest States, Mudug, Nugaal, inland Galgaduud and Bari, Awdal, and much of Woqooyi Galbeed.
Very high chances (up to 75%) of above-average temperatures are projected for Sool Region, parts of Togdheer (including Buhoodle and Burco), and Ceel Afweyne district in Sanaag.
Moderate probabilities (around 55%) of warmer-than-normal conditions are expected in Hirshabelle, parts of Banadir, Middle Shabelle coastal areas, Galgaduud coastal zones, and coastal districts of Bari and Sanaag.
Elevated temperatures are likely to increase heat stress, water demand, and evapotranspiration, worsening drought conditions and impacting health, agriculture, and livestock.
The widespread warm signal highlights the need for heat-risk preparedness and water-resource management across the country.

Key Highlights:

Poor and late Deyr rains: Most of Somalia is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall, with a delayed onset, especially in the southern regions.
Hotter than usual conditions: Above-average temperatures are expected, which will worsen drought conditions, increase water stress, and elevate health risks.
Persistent northern drought: Drought conditions in Somaliland and Puntland are expected to persist and further deteriorate.
Flood risks remain: Despite the overall dry outlook, localized flash floods and river overflows may still occur in flood-prone areas.
Livelihoods at risk: Short and erratic rains are likely to limit agricultural recovery and increase stress on livestock and livelihoods.