Somalia Seasonal Outlook - Deyr Season (Oct, Nov and Dec 2026)

Key Highlights:

• Wetter-than-normal Deyr rains: Most of Somalia is forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, with the strongest wet signal across southern and central regions.
• Generally timely rainfall onset: Seasonal rains are expected to become established from late September through October, although the timing may vary by location.
• Improved water and livelihoods: The wetter conditions could improve water availability, soil moisture, pasture and agricultural prospects across many areas.
• Flood risks remain: Above-normal rainfall may increase the risk of flash floods, riverine flooding and localized urban flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas.
• Agriculture and livestock opportunities: Improved rainfall may support crop production, pasture recovery and livestock water access, but waterlogging, erosion, flooding and livestock disease risks remain possible.
• Preparedness is critical: Communities and authorities should strengthen drainage, flood early warning, evacuation planning and monitoring of rivers and catchments ahead of periods of intense rainfall.